Reviewed by CalcFi Editorial · Verified against IRS Pub 17 + Form W-4 + Form 2210
Your YTD pulse — refund, bill, or break-even. Adjust your W-4 before December if needed. No advice. Just the math.
Auto-updated · Verified daily against IRS, Fed & Treasury sources
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Grab your latest pay stub. Three numbers: YTD wages, YTD federal tax withheld, pay periods elapsed.
Educational only — not tax advice.
Matches your most recent Form 1040
From latest pay stub, before deductions
Federal only — NOT Social Security or Medicare
How many paychecks so far this year
Biweekly = 26, semi-monthly = 24, monthly = 12
Pre-tax annual gross — withholding is calc'd against gross, not take-home. Leave 0 to auto-project from YTD pace.
2026 standard for single: $16,100
1099, RSU vest, capital gains, interest
Reduces taxable income
Based on your inputs
Projected liability $8,532 vs. projected withholding $9,360
Your withholding pace will exceed your tax liability by about $828 — that is your projected refund with ~3 months left in the year.
Slight over-withhold — small refund coming. Acceptable but not optimal.
What to do next: No action required. If you prefer break-even, claim a small Step 4(b) deduction on a new W-4.
Extrapolated from YTD pace
Taxable income $61,900 via 2026 brackets
| Filing status | Single |
|---|---|
| YTD wages | $60,000 |
| YTD federal withheld | $7,200 |
| Pay periods elapsed / total | 20 / 26 |
| Projected year-end wages | $78,000 |
| Pre-tax 401k (projected year) | $0 |
| Other income (projected year) | $0 |
| Deduction | $16,100 |
| Taxable income (projected) | $61,900 |
| Projected federal liability | $8,532 |
| Projected federal withheld | $9,360 |
| Refund (+) or Owe (−) | $828 |
Sources & method
IRS Publication 17 — federal income tax brackets and standard deduction (2026 inflation-adjusted).
IRS Form W-4 — withholding adjustment (Step 3 dependents, Step 4(b) deductions, Step 4(c) extra withholding).
IRS Form 2210 — estimated tax safe-harbor rules (90% current / 100% prior, 110% if AGI > $150k).
Educational only. Excludes AMT, NIIT, credits, and state tax. Multi-state, RSU-heavy, or self-employed filers should consult a CPA. Not tax advice.
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Your YTD gross wages (before 401k/HSA/health-insurance deductions), YTD federal income tax withheld (NOT Social Security or Medicare), and the number of pay periods that have already happened this year. All three appear on every modern pay stub.
Filing status matches what you put on your most recent Form 1040 (Single, Married Filing Jointly, Head of Household, Married Filing Separately). The 2026 standard deduction is $14,600 single, $29,200 MFJ, $21,900 HoH (IRS Rev. Proc. inflation adjustment).
Enter your itemized total (mortgage interest + state/local tax up to $10k + charitable + qualifying medical) in the deduction field. If itemized exceeds the standard, use itemized. If lower, use the standard.
Yes — enter total YTD other income in the optional field. The calculator adds it to projected wages before computing liability so the headline result reflects your real tax picture, not just W-2 wages.
You generally avoid an underpayment penalty if total withholding plus estimated payments equals at least 90% of current-year liability OR 100% of prior-year liability (110% if prior AGI > $150k). See IRS Form 2210 instructions.
File a new IRS Form W-4 with your employer. Step 4(c) "Extra withholding" adds a flat dollar amount per paycheck (under-withheld). Steps 3 and 4(b) can reduce withholding (over-withheld). Changes hit the next pay period.
No. This is an educational projection based on 2026 IRS brackets and the YTD numbers you enter. Edge cases (AMT, NIIT, credits, multi-state) need a CPA or fee-only fiduciary tax advisor.
Refund or owe = Projected withholding − Projected liability
Projected withholding extrapolates YTD federal tax withheld through remaining pay periods. Projected liability uses 2026 IRS brackets on (projected wages − pre-tax 401k + other income − deduction).
2026 brackets per IRS Rev. Proc. inflation adjustments. Standard deduction $14,600 single / $29,200 MFJ / $21,900 HoH. Excludes AMT, NIIT, credits, and state tax — see a CPA for edge cases.
Every formula on this page traces to a federal agency, central bank, or peer-reviewed institution. We cite the rule-makers, not secondhand blogs.
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Calculations are for educational purposes only. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized advice.